globe tv predictions Golden Globes TV predictions: Who's up for a rerun?We understand that making predictions about Golden Globes nominations is something of a fool’s errand. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association isn’t the most predictable voting body.

But we think we might have a handle on who will score nominations in the TV categories this year: a lot of the people and shows who were nominated last year. As much as the HFPA likes to honor new shows (a la “Glee” and “Modern Family” last year), there just aren’t a ton of award-worthy new series on TV this season. Thus it feels like a lot of the shows and performers up for awards last year will hear their names again at Tuesday’s (Dec. 14) nominations press conference.

We’re betting that of the 10 series up for best comedy and drama, at least half will be shows that were nominated last year. The same could go for the lead acting categories in comedy and drama (we’re leaving out the supporting actor categories because they also include TV movies and miniseries).

With that in mind, take a look at last year’s nominees for best comedy and drama and the lead acting categories below. After each list are our picks to repeat and which shows might break through; share your thoughts in the comments.

Best drama series

Last year’s nominees:
“Big Love”
“Dexter”
“House”
“Mad Men” (winner)
“True Blood”

Keepers: “Dexter,” “Mad Men,” possibly “House”; the most recent seasons of “Big Love” and “True Blood” weren’t as well-received as their previous ones.

Contenders: The HFPA could give “Lost” a farewell nomination. “Boardwalk Empire” is the most likely first-year show to break into the field. “The Good Wife” could score a series nod this time out, and “Breaking Bad” — which inexplicably has never been nominated for a Golden Globe in any category — should get one.

Deserving but unlikely: “Fringe,” FX’s just-canceled “Terriers,” “Friday Night Lights.”

Best comedy series

Last year’s nominees:
“30 Rock”
“Entourage”
“Glee” (winner)
“Modern Family”
“The Office”

Keepers: “Glee” and “Modern Family” for sure, and probably at least one of the NBC shows. Frankly, though, we wouldn’t be surprised if all five shows are nominated again, deserving or not.

Contenders: “United States of Tara” isn’t especially funny, but it had a great second season. “Community” and “Cougar Town” often make us laugh more per half-hour than any other show on the air.

Deserving but unlikely: No comedy was on its game more consistently last season than “Parks and Recreation,” but the fact that it wasn’t on in the fall could hurt its chances.

Drama lead actress

Last year’s nominees:
Glenn Close, “Damages”
January Jones, “Mad Men”
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” (winner)
Anna Paquin, “True Blood”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

Keepers: Close, Margulies, Emmy winner Sedgwick and possibly Paquin. Jones wasn’t as central to “Mad Men’s” story this season as she was last year.

Contenders: Kelly Macdonald of “Boardwalk Empire” is a previous Globe nominee and very good in her role. The lack of good new shows this season makes this a pretty short list.

Deserving but unlikely: Emily Deschanel’s work on “Bones” has been stellar this season, but crime shows don’t tend to score that big with awards voters.

Drama lead actor

Last year’s nominees:
Simon Baker, “The Mentalist”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter” (winner)
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House”
Bill Paxton, “Big Love”

Keepers: Hall, Hamm and Laurie are pretty much automatic in this category. The charming Baker has a chance at repeat too.

Contenders: Steve Buscemi dismissed any doubts about his ability to be a leading man in “Boardwalk Empire.” If “Lost” gets a final-season nomination for best drama, Matthew Fox could score here as well.

Deserving but unlikely: Peter Krause gives a fine, grounded performance in “Parenthood,” but it’s also pretty subtle. Tim Roth’s dynamic work on “Lie to Me” comes on a show that’s not really awards bait.

Comedy lead actress

Last year’s nominees:
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara” (winner)
Courteney Cox, “Cougar Town”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Lea Michele, “Glee”

Keepers: It’s not hard to see a complete rerun of last year’s nominees.

Contenders: “Parks and Recreation” may not break through in the series category, but Amy Poehler should be on the short list here. Now that “The Middle” has gotten on more people’s radar, Emmy winner Patricia Heaton could also be in the mix. Laura Linney’s performance on “The Big C” could get some attention too.

Deserving but unlikely: Melissa McCarthy is very sweet in “Mike & Molly,” but the show doesn’t seem like it’s in Globe voters’ wheelhouse.

Comedy lead actor

Last year’s nominees:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (winner)
Steve Carell, “The Office”
David Duchovny, “Californication”
Thomas Jane, “Hung”
Matthew Morrison, “Glee”

Keepers: Baldwin and Carell are pretty much shoo-ins, but otherwise this category could have more turnover than the others. “Californication” didn’t air in 2010, so Duchovny isn’t eligible.

Contenders: Jim Parsons of “The Big Bang Theory” won the Emmy this year; he should his first Globe nod. Joel McHale has given his “Community” character a lot more depth than you would have expected in the show’s early episodes.

Deserving but unlikely: If the HFPA decides to break the “Modern Family” cast’s solidarity and say one of them is a lead and not a supporting actor, you could see one of them show up here.

Posted by:Rick Porter