randy bailey survivor 320 'Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains': No. 20 Randy BaileyZap2it handicaps the 20 returning contestants on “Survivor: Heroes vs Villains.” Who’s going home first? Villain Randy Bailey.

Disclaimer: We have no spoilers about the upcoming season of “Survivor.” This is pure speculation based on the hundreds of hours spent watching the show.

On every season of “Survivor,” somebody has to go home first and this time around it’s Randy Bailey. Why Randy? Partly because of the theory that the Heroes tribe will do better than the Villains tribe, at least at first.

The Heroes tribe is returning some of the most well-liked cast members in “Survivor” history. Even the big personalities like Rupert and Amanda work relatively well with their own tribe members. In contrast, the Villains are going to have a situation of too many Chiefs, not enough Indians. The men on the Villains tribe have big personalities and like to be in charge. Add pushy Jerri Manthey, manipulative Parvati Shallow and cynical, scornful Courtney Yates to the mix and it means their initial Immunity Challenges are going to be a mess.

So, the first few Tribal Councils will feature the Villains. And who is likely to go home first? The person who rubs everyone the wrong way, can’t socialize at all and wants to run the show. And that is Randy Bailey.

Bailey was a total jerk on “Survivor: Gabon,” the 17th installment of the show. While other villains may have big personalities, they can at least be funny (Tyson) or charming (Rob) or pretty (Parvati). Randy is a crabby old man who alienates people and if he comes into the game bossing everybody around and acting like he knows best, his crabby butt will be on the first plane home.

Tomorrow: No. 19 Jerri Manthey

“Survivor: Heroes vs Villains” premieres Feb. 11 on CBS.

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Photo credit: CBS

Posted by:Andrea Reiher

TV critic by way of law school, Andrea Reiher enjoys everything from highbrow drama to clever comedy to the best reality TV has to offer. Her TV heroes include CJ Cregg, Spencer Hastings, Diane Lockhart, Juliet O'Hara and Buffy Summers. TV words to live by: "I'm a slayer, ask me how."