Here’s a sure sign it’s taken way too long (for fans, at least) for “The Winds of Winter” to hit store shelves: Statistician Richard Vale put together a mathematical model, specifically a Bayesian prediction, to figure out who would get point-of-view chapters in the final two “A Song of Ice and Fire” novels.
The tables break down how many chapters each “Game of Thrones” character might have, based on the statistical formula Vale developed, which is based on how many chapters each character had in the first five books. It’s clear that this is more for fun than for any fast-and-sure predictions, so don’t take any of this as solid fact.
Vale notes a couple issues with the math, most notably that it doesn’t factor in any new characters being introduced — which we all know author George R.R. Martin will undoubtedly do. The math also doesn’t incorporate events in the books, which could make or break the prediction that a certain character who maybe died in “A Dance with Dragons” gets at least one POV chapter in “The Winds of Winter.”
The graphs in the paper show the probabilities of various characters getting POV chapters, which is why Eddard Stark and Catelyn Stark are seemingly getting nothing (RIP). But interestingly, Arya Stark has one of the highest probabilities of not having any chapters in “The Winds of Winter” and book 7, “A Dream of Spring.”
Considering audiences already know she gets at least one chapter in book 6 and she doesn’t die at the end of it, there’s hope for her yet, but this mathematical model seems to be saying there’s a good chance she could stop being a POV character before series’ end. Vale’s math seems to say that Arya has a 60 percent chance of having at least one chapter (which is already proven) versus a 40 percent chance of having no chapters.
Tyrion Lannister is another character who has a high probability of having few to no chapters in the last two “ASoIaF” books. That might come as a surprise to some, but considering Martin’s penchant for killing off favorite characters who are seemingly the central protagonists in his stories, it also should be unsurprising. Never love anyone too much in “Game of Thrones”
Other characters who likely won’t be getting POV chapters are Arys Oakheart, Melisandre, Aeron Greyjoy and Areo Hotah, none of which are too surprising or necessarily mean those characters will die, as they have never been the main POV characters. What do you make of these predictions? Are there any you imagine will come true?
Andrea Reiher contributed to this article.