It’s not an easy thing to get inside the minds of the 80 or so members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. But we’re trying.
We’ve stopped trying to discern the whys behind some of the nominations and turned our attention to who we think will be taking home trophies in the TV portion of Sunday’s (Jan. 16) Golden Globes, which air live at 8 p.m. ET/5 PT on NBC. Will the HFPA give another award to “Mad Men,” or will another drama series break through? Will “Glee” repeat as best comedy series?
We’ll find out for sure on Sunday night. Until then, here are our predictions of who will win, as well as those who we think should get the awards.
Outstanding lead actress – comedy
Will win: 2011 nominees Tina Fey and Toni Collette have already taken home the Globe for this category (Collette last year, Fey the previous two years). Is this year for Edie Falco‘s highly acclaimed “Nurse Jackie” role to win some hardware? She already won the Emmy back in August, so we think probably it is.
Should win: Laura Linney. She makes cancer funny and handles sad, serious topics with grace and humor. She could honestly be nominated in both the comedy and the drama categories, but either way, she deserves to win for her work on “The Big C.”
Outstanding lead actor – comedy
Will win: Let’s be honest: Alec Baldwin is the reigning king of TV comedy right now and has won the Golden Globe for the past three years running. This makes him the obvious correct choice — but the wrong one as well. Do we want to see Baldwin take home the Globe for the fourth year in a row? We’d like to see The Hollywood Foreign Press spread a little of the wealth around, but alas — Baldwin has done his job of keeping us in stitches all season, so we think he’s still the king.
Should win: Though we would love to see underdog Thomas Jane bring it home and give “Hung” a little more recognition, we can’t turn our backs on Jim Parsons. “The Big Bang Theory” never ceases to make us laugh, and Parsons’ endearing performance is about 75 percent of the reason why. Most of the funniest moments on the show stem either directly from his character, Sheldon, or from the rest of the cast playing off of him. It’s impossible to deny his star power, and while he’s an obvious fan favorite (and the reigning Emmy winner), it would be nice to see him receive some official kudos.
Outstanding comedy series
Will win: After a largely exhausting second season, “Glee” is not the darling it was this time in 2010. So while a win isn’t entirely a long shot, expect it to go to “Modern Family” instead. It’s only gotten better since winning the 2010 Emmy, and its not nearly as divisive as its musical competition.
Should win: Former perennial favorite “30 Rock” may have lost some support after a so-so Season 4, but its latest run has produced some the funniest episodes yet. The live episode is also a perfect showcase of how the series continually challenges what it means to be a TV sitcom. Its efforts should really be acknowledged.
Outstanding lead actress – drama
Will win: This is a tough category. Before the last Emmy ceremony, we would’ve said Julianna Margulies was a slam dunk to repeat for “The Good Wife.” But at the 2010 Emmys, Kyra Sedgwick came out of nowhere to take the Emmy, so perhaps this is more of a race than we thought. Plus, they’ve thrown in some wild cards in first-time drama nominees Katey Sagal and Piper Perabo, and perennial nominee Elisabeth Moss is always strong on “Mad Men.” But we think the Hollywood Foreign Press plays it safe and Margulies wins again.
Should win: It’s a competitive field, but Katey Sagal is doing phenomenal work on FX’s “Sons of Anarchy” as matriarch Gemma Teller Morrow. We think she should’ve been nominated for her Season 2 storyline, but we’ll take it that she’s nominated this year. And we think she should win.
Outstanding lead actor – drama
Will win: This category is definitely one of the night’s toughest to call, as all the nominees are deserving of the win. But the race will probably come down to Jon Hamm and Michael C. Hall. Both have delivered sensational and extremely buzzed-about performances this season. In the end, this round is going to last year’s winner, Hall, whose portrayal of serial killer Dexter Morgan is still giving us chills five years into his show.
Should win: We would say “Friday Night Lights'” Kyle Chandler, but there is the whole problem of him not being nominated and all. Not cool, Golden Globes. Not cool. In all seriousness, in a category full of heavy hitters, Jon Hamm seems like the standout to us; this season he gave his best performance yet (“The Suitcase,” anyone?) as Don Draper.
Outstanding drama series
Will win: It’s a pretty sure bet that “Mad Men” will take the prize again. While this season baffled viewers with some of the creative choices the show made, critics have applauded the series for delving even further into Don’s (Jon Hamm) background and for undertaking a risky reboot of sorts for the series. The HFPA will want to reward it for that.
Should win: “Boardwalk Empire” has every right to take the prize this year from its fellow period series. Similar to “Mad Men,” it took a unique and often no-holds-barred view of its time, in this case, the Prohibition era — a period America would love to forget. The series feels both sweeping and detail-oriented in its depiction of the stakes at hand, the violence, and also the romance of the time.
Best supporting actress – television
Will win: Since the Globes groups supporting performers in regular series, TV movies and miniseries into one category, predictions are a little dicier tha
n the others. Star power sometimes tips the balance, but all other things being equal it feels like the two comedy series regulars, Sofia Vergara of “Modern Family” and Jane Lynch of “Glee,” are the top two contenders. Lynch won last year, but we’re going to take a flyer and say Vergara wins this time.
Should win: Kelly Macdonald did outstanding work on “Boardwalk Empire,” but we’re going with Vergara here as well.
Best supporting actor – television
Will win: This is perhaps the most eclectic group of nominees in the awards, and thus maybe the hardest to call. David Strathairn won an Emmy for his role in “Temple Grandin,” and we’re saying the HFPA follows suit.
Should win: It wouldn’t be a crime if any of the five nominees won. To our eyes, Eric Stonestreet creates the most indelible character of the lot, so he’s our choice.
Who are you picking to win at the Golden Globes?